THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF SOCIO-POLITICAL FACTORS' INFLUENCE ON IMPLEMENTATION OF CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICIES IN THE FORESTRY SECTOR

I.A. Okhremchuk

Abstract


Developing climate mitigation policies and strategies for mitigating climate change includes elaboration of alternative scenarios of socio-economic development and quantitation of the scenarios using mathematical models. In particular, integrated assessment models IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, AIM, GCAM, REMIND-MAGPIE are used for assessment of global environmental scenarios "The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways" (SSPs), "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs) and "Shared Climate Policy Assumptions" (SPA). The analysis of reports on implementation of environmental programs in China, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Mexico, Kenya, Republic of Cameroon, Brazil and Bangladesh reveals that the development of environmental programs should take into account the level of democracy, trust in government and law, gender equality, equal rights, corruption, poverty, availability of adequate communication of authorities and experts with local people, lack of fuel and effect of spatial spreading of deforestation. Based on the above-mentioned socio-political factors, a conceptual model of influence of socio-political factors on the implementation of climate change mitigation policies is developed. Political and social indices are proposed to be used as proxies for the socio-political factors. Accounting of the socio-political factors in development of environmental policies will improve their efficiency and save money.

Keywords


scenarios; conceptual model; climate mitigation policies; socio-political factors; SSPs; RCPs; SPA

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15421/40260764

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