SIMULATION MODELING OF PROGNOSTICATION OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE' REGIONS IN THE NON-STATIONARY CONDITIONS

L.V. Duma

Abstract


The character of dynamics, pace and proportions of socio-economic indicators in Ukraine are largely under the influence of non-stationary conditions of operation. Some signs of non-stationary structure are unstable macroeconomic processes in time, the difficulty of formalizing their dynamics, the uncertain future etc. Ignoring these features along with the lack of statistical data makes impossible the evaluation, analysis and forecasting of dynamics of macroeconomic processes by classical methods. Therefore the study aims at reviewing the nature and characteristics of simulation for analyzing and forecasting the socio-economic development of the country. The results of the study have shown that the basis of such simulations are diagrams causality – cognitive map and study the problem on the basis of a cognitive map is through the distribution of the pulsed process. The authors have also analyzed a number of modern simulation (cognitive) models of regional development proposed in the scientific literature that demonstrate the use of this tool as the modeling of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and indicators of local economic and social development of the region. Finally, the basic advantages and disadvantages of the use of cognitive models in the modeling of macroeconomic and regional dynamics were defined. Having completed the study the authors made the following conclusions. The experiments made for several scenarios of development of social tension in different regions and implementing various managerial influences helped identify priority directions for reducing social tension, a high effect of increasing employment and subsidies to the poor in particular. Applying pulse models can predict the development of specific situations in certain regions and make substatntiated recommendations on measures of economic and social policy.

Keywords


simulation; region; simulation model; cognitive map

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15421/40270237

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